Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Here We Are...

What a wild ride it has been. Looking back through some of my ramblings from earlier this year remind me of just how far we have come. The word I used to describe our win over Arkansas State was "ugly" and Cam Newton was listed in my "Negatives" section for the first three weeks of the season. I went as far in the Clemson Game Review to say "I think its safe to say Cam Newton isn't going to win the Heisman this year."

HAHAHAHA

Ok... that's enough.

The South Carolina game was the game that turned my attitude about this team. Seeing Newton completely take that game over and lead the team with a Tebow-esque attitude really proved that every time this team took the field they would have a great chance to win. I concluded the month of September with an article titled Expectations, They're A Sonuvabitch which laid out my belief that this team had what it took to go undefeated this year.

By the time Arkansas and LSU had been dismissed Cam Newton had reached superstar status. Alabama already had one loss on their record and we merely needed to survive the Rebels on the road and a struggling Georgia team at home (oh yeah, there was a scrimmage with Chattanooga in between there).

Unfortunately I can't talk about the roller coaster of this season without discussing the media onslaught we were bombarded with in the beginning of November and still lingers today. No sooner than we were celebrating being 9-0 there were stories beginning to break of potential NCAA violations during the recruitment of Cam Newton. Stories have been written, stories have changed, changed back and changed again. Sources have been quoted and other anonymous sources continued to leak "information" for weeks while Auburn stayed quiet and Cam continued to play. I have maintained my faith but it seems the rumor and innuendo have left few outside the Auburn family believing that we will come out of this situation clean. The fact that the story has died down (outside the obtuse local Alabama shock jocks) during our off week leading up to the Iron Bowl tells me that the unnamed sources and breaking news should be finished and all that remains is an official decision from the NCAA.

So in the end we are 11-0, have secured a birth in the SEC Championship game and if we win out we are in the BCS National Championship game. Perhaps the past month has soured an otherwise magical season but there is still plenty of football left to make this season possibly the best in school history.

Can we beat Alabama? Of course. Looking at our five common opponents this year there is no doubt which team has performed better. Auburn's point differential in those five games is +14, Alabama's is +4. Auburn's yardage differential is +112.4, Alabama's is +32.2. On a per play basis Auburn's offense is averaging nearly a full yard more than Alabama's in those five games while, surprisingly, Alabama's defense is holding teams to a mere tenth of a yard less than Auburn's defense. Perhaps most importantly Auburn went 5-0, Alabama went 3-2.

Here's the catch: Alabama has played much better at home this year. They have gotten off to fast starts in the first half and then lean on solid defense and grind it out offense to take home easy victories. The closest game they have had at home all year was a 23-10 victory over Ole Miss. In Auburn's three road games thus far we have avoided falling into the same first half holes we have tended to stumble into at home. That is likely attributed to the fact that our road competition hasn't been nearly as stiff as those who have visited the Plains. If Auburn gets down two touchdowns early again, climbing out of that hole in front of 102,000 fans cheering against them against a Nick Saban coached defense may be too tall of a task.

Alabama's offense is far more balanced this year than last. In their 2009 championship season they leaned heavily on Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram with a fair amount of Trent Richardson mixed in. Greg McElroy has evolved from game manager to a quarterback capable of carrying his team when the running game runs dry. Auburn's defensive line is capable of containing Alabama's rushing attack much like they did last year. What Ted Roof's crew may struggle with is preventing McElroy and Julio Jones from playing catch up and down the field against our porous secondary.

No one has been able to stop Cam Newton and this offense all year and I don't believe that will change on Friday. This offense has progressed all year long and with a bye week to rest and perfect our game plan there is no reason it shouldn't come out firing on all cylinders.

This is a match up for the ages and no outcome would shock me. It is possible that Auburn could lose this game and still make it into the BCS Championship game but I doubt that thought has even crossed the mind of a single player or coach.

We're coming to win and Cam is coming with us.

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