Expectations, They're A Sonuvabitch

Expectations are a tricky thing when it comes to college football fans. Coming into the season if you told anyone that we would be 4-0 (soon to be 5-0) to start the season they would be extatic. I can't decide if they would be more excited to know that we made multiple, usually game-costing, gaffs and still were able to prevail in tight games on three of those occasions.

But, what happened instead? We went into Starkville, Mississippi and beat a team who many of the "experts" picked to beat us despite being shut out in the second half. So, naturally, fans boosted their expectations.

"If it wasn't for the penalties we would have scored 34 points against one of the better defenses in the SEC. And now we have a great defense to match our great offense."

The following week against Clemson we see the offense continue to sputter in the first half before exploding in the third quarter. Again the expectations were raised.

"If we can put together four quarters just like the third quarter than we can beat anyone in the country! Clemson will probably win the ACC this year."

Now, after a win against #12 South Carolina we play the closest thing we've seen thus far to a complete game and instead of breathing easy that we are 4-0 the expectations have again been raised. The fans who had previously predicted an 8-4 season now are calling for a 10-2 season at worst. And those whose expectations were already calling for a 10-2 season now believe we are capable of going undefeated and playing for the National Championship.

There is nothing wrong with fans expecting nothing but the best from their team but the problem with expectations is that as soon as the team meets or excedes what the fans expected coming in, the fans adjust their expectations and raise the bar. It sets up a situation in which the fans can only be satisfied with an undefeated championship season.

So, since we've established that, despite what anyone might tell you, the expectations for this team are an undefeated national championship season, will they deliver?

If this team has shown us anything it is that we've seen nothing yet. Cam Newton, who, according to ESPN SEC Blogger Chris Low, is the runaway front runner for SEC Player of the Year so far, has been on campus for less then nine months. He has shown significant improvement in his knowledge of the offense, his decision making when throwing the ball, and his execution of the zone-read run. If what we saw against South Carolina is the best he gives us all year than we will be more than fine, but as anyone who has watched him knows, he is capable of much more, and that is a scary thought.

The inexperience doesn't end with Cam. Starting running back Mike Dyer is a true freshman and just emerged as the starter in week three against Clemson. He has seen his carries increase from 9 to 16 to 23 these past three weeks. Against South Carolina he eclipsed the century mark against a defense that allowed less than 60 yards rushing per game. It has to be believed that Dyer's best football is ahead of him as the game slows down for him and he becomes more comfortable in the offense.

On defense redshirt freshman Nosa Eguae was promoted ahead of senior Michael Goggans against South Carolina, a decision that immediately paid dividends. In addition to Eguae Auburn is playing five freshmen in the 2-deep on defense. As the season progresses the expectation (there's that word again) will be that those players will be playing less like freshmen and should show significant improvement.

In 2004 we were fortunate to see a team who found their stride by week three. That team was led by a senior quarterback in his third year as a starter, sharing a backfield with two running backs picked in the top 5 of the NFL draft. That team spoilled us. As a reminder, with the exception of the LSU game in week 3, no team had the ball in the 4th quarter with even a chance to take the lead. Most teams, even undefeated championship teams, don't have seasons like that.

In 2008 Florida won the national championship despite a week four loss to a mediocre Ole Miss team. The Alabama team from that same year completed an undefeated regular season that included home wins over Tulane, Kentucky and Ole Miss with a combined margin of victory of 20 points. Last year's Alabama team which completed a 14-0 national championship season snuck past a 7-6 Tennessee team by the grace of three missed Volunteer field goals, and let's not forget the come from behind 5 point victory in the Iron Bowl in Chizik's first season with a depleated team.

So when this 2010 Auburn team had to lean on its defense to win on the road against Mississippi State, had to explode for 21 points in the third quarter to steal a victory from Clemson, and had to overcome two first half fumbles and have an MVP performance from Newton to defeat South Carolina, just be thankful that we emerged victorious despite not playing our best game. Those are the types of wins that change seasons from a 9-3 Cotton Bowl trip into an 11-1 Sugar Bowl trip.

Over these next two weeks Auburn should have three goals:
1. Win. Against Louisiana-Monroe this shouldn't be an issue, but the trip to Lexington could be a devestating loss if we walk in there expecting them to lay down.
2. Get a lot of rest for our starters and reps for our second string. Heading into our home stretch of the season we need our starters as fresh as possible and our second team to be as seasoned as possible so they can be counted on when called upon.
3. Refine our fundamentals and execution. The issues that have tripped us up the first third of this season have been primarily self inflicted. We must clean up the penalties, become more comfortable within our offensive and defensive schemes and cut down on turnovers or we may not be lucky enough to escape with a victory in future weeks.

This team has what it takes to go undefeated, so go ahead and raise those expectations. Let's just be honest up front... We expect to win them all.