Yes, Auburn fans, basketball season is almost here. Who knew?
My last weekend in Louisville a buddy of mine who is a UK alum was talking about the hundreds of fans who were camping out for nearly a full week outside of UK's ticket office to get a ticket to the Madness. Madness indeed. All 16,000 tickets sold out in less than an hour. Boom M-F'er.
With 90 points surrendered in the past two weeks I'm certain the basketball team will have multiple two game stetches with fewer points allowed.
Despite all of that, Auburn is a mere six point favorite this weekend. If you ask the "wise guys" that line is way too low as betting trends on SportsBook.com indicate that 87% of the betting public is taking Auburn and giving the points while an astounding 100% of the betting public is taking Auburn to win the game.
And that is what worries me. I am not going to predict an upset but I believe this game is going to be far closer than any Auburn fan would like.
For one, despite playing for revenge after last year's aboration it is hard to believe that this team actually fears this Kentucky team. Watching them lose by a combined 41 points in their first two SEC games has that affect. A team that thinks they should win is always at great risk especially when their opponent's biggest strengths exploits their biggest weaknesses.
Watching this Kentucky team they have three players that they run their offense through: quarterback Mike Hartline, running back Derrick Locke, and wide receiver / wildcat quarterback Randle Cobb.
Hartline is a steady, if unspectacular field general. He's completing nearly 64% of his passes and has thrown eight touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions. A senior, now in his third year as a starter, Hartline has seen it all and cannot be counted on to make rookie mistakes.
Also a senior, running back Derrick Locke is the second leading rusher in the SEC averaging 108.6 yards per game. At 5'9" 190 pounds Locke isn't going to look to run anyone over, and perhaps that will work in his favor against an Auburn defense that has struggled against speed backs.
Prior to the South Carolina game our friends over at War Blog Eagle did a break down of our defense's results against speed backs compared to power backs. Here are the results:
SPEED BACKS:
Noel Devine (West Va. ’09): 15 carries, 128 yards, 8.5 YPC, 3 TDs
Derrick Locke (UK, ’09): 19 carries, 126 yards, 6.6 YPC, 0 TDs
Michael Smith (Ark. ’09): 18 carries, 145 yards, 8.1 YPC, 1 TD
Dexter McCluster (Miss. ’09): 22 carries, 186 yards, 8.5 YPC, 1 TD
Andre Ellington (Clemson ’10): 22 carries, 140 yards, 6.4 YPC, 1 TD
Totals: 96 carries, 725 yards, 7.6 YPC, 6 TDs
POWER BACKS:
Anthony Dixon (Miss. St. ’09): 20 carries, 92 yards, 4.6 YPC, 1 TD
Montario Hardesty (Tenn. ’09): 21 carries, 90 yards, 4.3 YPC, 1 TD
Charles Scott (LSU, ’09): 10 carries, 20 yards, 2.0 YPC, 0 TDs
Washaun Ealey (UGA, ’09): 18 carries, 98 yards, 5.4, 1 TD
Mark Ingram (‘Bama ’09): 16 carries, 30 yards, 1.9 YPC, 0 TDs
Trent Richardson (‘Bama ’09): 15 carries, 51 yards, 3.4 YPC, 1 TD*
Jamie Harper (Clemson ’10): 19 carries, 44 yards, 2.3 YPC, 0 TDs
Totals: 119 carries, 425 yards, 3.6 YPC, 4 TDs
We can now add Lattimore's 33 yards on 14 carries to the power backs results, further solidifying the evidence that we have great success when facing that type of runner.
So, is Auburn's 12th nationally ranked rush defense a product of only facing one speed back this year (Andre Ellington - see above)? Or was Ellington's success an aboration against a much improved defense? To this point we have no evidence that says we can shut down a speed back so this weekend will provide a great opportunity to change that.
Randall Cobb is their do-it-all offensive weapon. The junior receiver has scored touch downs five different ways this year (receiving, rushing, passing, kick return, fake field goal) and is one of the SEC's best all around players. He serves as a starting wide receiver, the wildcat quarterback, kick and punt returner, and the holder on field goals.
Kentucky will attack Auburn's defense on the edges. Expect to see a lot of bubble screens and jail break screens to Cobb to get him the ball in space against our corners who have been giving up a lot of underneath passes. Locke will use his speed to get to the edge and as soon as we begin to over pursue he will use his agaility to find the cutback lanes and hit us for big yardage if we become undisciplined. Another weapon they will turn to around the goal line is 6'5" 220 pound senior receiver Chris Matthews who leads the Wildcats with five touch down receptions.
This is an offense that should scare Auburn fans. I know they only managed 14 points against Florida but the Gator's have a very solid defense (UK managed 352 total yards vs. 271 for Alabama). With our struggles against speed backs, the quick underneath passing game and the screen game, I expect Kentucky to have a lot of success on offense.
Frustrating success. The kind of success that will keep our offense off the field and put up enough points to keep this game close well into the fourth quarter.
Notice I didn't mention their defense much, and for good reason. I don't believe they will have many answers for the top ranked offense in the SEC.
The crowd will be liquoured up (the plan for most will be to tailgate Keenland's opening day, party at the track until 5 pm, tailgate for another hour or two, before trickling into the stadium by the middle of the first quarter in standard Kentucky fashion) and their team now has nothing left to lose. If Auburn comes in over confident and gives the underdog too much of a reason to believe they can hang around than the 'Cats are more than capable of pulling the upset.
Don't sleep on this one.
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