IT'S A TRAP!

Admiral Ackbar has been warning us all year on the sign of The Diesel bar in Virginia Highlands. Considering the way this season has played out and the circumstances around the game, maybe the leader of the Rebel army should change his name to Nostradamus.

I said two weeks ago that I was more nervous about going to Oxford after a win over LSU than actually beating LSU. Having played three emotionally draining games in a row, defeating two highly ranked opponents at home, playing the ninth game in a row without a bye, and staring down a team who lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt at home, how does the team NOT take an emotional step back?

The real question is, does the team who lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt at home have enough fire power to take down the number one team in the nation even if they don't bring 100% effort?

I'll look at both sides.

Yes, they absolutely do. The only two road games Auburn has played this season were against Mississippi State and Kentucky. Both games were field goal wins. Both of those games were played following a blow out win over an over matched opponent so Auburn was fresh and focused headed into both match ups. Despite bringing everything we had we still weren't able to blow out inferior opponents.

That Mississippi State team has just broke into the top 25 but, what wins are they hanging their hat on? They got blown out by 22 at LSU, they beat a down-trodden A.J. Green-less UGA team in Starkville, went to Gainsville and beat Florida in a game eerily similar to Auburn's 2008 visit to Starkville that finished 3-2, then, returning home, the bulldogs snuck past UAB 29-24. Dan Mullen's squad has struggled with below average quarterback play all season and that is what saved Auburn in week two. MSU was driving at the end of the fourth quarter with a chance to win but Chris Relf was unable to exploit Auburn's weak secondary and Auburn eeked out the win.

How about those Wildcats? After beating up on weak opponents the first three weeks of the season Kentucky had their first test in week four against Florida (yeah, that same Florida team who only scored seven points against Mississippi State and has now lost three in a row) and they got drilled 48-14 in front of their home crowd. Then, Kentucky traveled to Oxford and fell to Ole Miss 42-35. The next week Kentucky returned home to take Auburn down to the wire with Auburn not kicking the game winning field goal until the clock struck 0:00. Kentucky now sits at 4-4 and 1-4 in the SEC.

Now looking at Ole Miss, sure they started out horribly but they have certainly turned things around. Since their 1-2 start they've defeated Fresno State by 17, they beat Kentucky by a touchdown then fell in two tough road games against Alabama and Arkansas but were competitive in both. A closer look at their game against Arkansas reveals they actually out gained the Hogs 512-464 in total yards. Jeramiah Masoli appears to be finding his stride in the Rebel offense contributing 425 total yards of offense against Arkansas (as a reference point the most total yards Cam Newton has had in a single game this season is 408 against Kentucky). Masoli has enough talent running and throwing to give Auburn's defense fits.

For the first time all season Auburn decided to lighten up at practice. Tuesdays are traditionally the designated "physical" practice. This week Coach Chizik decided to go in shells only (only shoulder pads and helmet) in an effort to allow the team to heal up from the knicks and bruises that eight straight games will give a team. Will this be noticeable on Saturday? Ole Miss defensive tackle Jerrell Powe is one of the SEC's best and a step back in physicality could lead to number 57 living in the Tiger backfield.

Extra Ole Miss energy, a dual threat quarterback capable of exploiting Auburn's weaknesses on defense and an Auburn team who is beat up, exhausted and ready for a break... that is the recipe for an upset.

Ok... that was painful.

Let's set the record straight. Ole Miss sucks. The only win they have to hang their hat on is a seven point home win against a Kentucky team who is 1-4 in the SEC. And upon further inspection, Kentucky out gained Ole Miss by 123 yards but lost the turnover battle 3-0. Against Alabama Masoli went 18/40 (45%) for 110 yards through the air. Alabama went up 23-3 in the third quarter and turned on cruise control. And that Arkansas game? The Razorbacks went up 21-0 and took a 21-3 lead into halftime before two lightning delays totaling nearly 90 minutes took the rhythm out of the game. Ole Miss got within 10 early in the fourth quarter but the game was never in doubt with Arkansas finishing with a 14 point victory.

Jeramiah Masoli, while a dangerous weapon, was bottled up for a half by a pitiful Arkansas defense and looked awful facing an Alabama defense which has had some struggles defending the pass this year. He's only completing 56.5% of his passes this year and has thrown six interceptions in seven games.

Ole Miss has struggled with injuries this year, particularly on the offensive line where they will start three freshmen along the interior of their line including one player who joined the team as a walk-on this summer. That player, Patrick Junen, is hobbled by an ankle injury but will try to go this Saturday while being matched up against... Nick Fairly. That should be fun.

Against Auburn's defensive line there is almost no chance that Ole Miss will be able to generate a traditional running game. Their defense is ranked eighth in the SEC in yards per game and dead last in points per game so the most powerful offense in the conference should have no trouble putting up points in bunches. The Rebels will have no choice but to turn to the pass early and often and let Masoli loose. This could certainly turn into their best offensive output of the season but more likely it will turn into a mix of explosive plays and devastating turnovers.

Auburn put up 31 points in the first half against Kentucky before going to sleep in the second half. I see no reason Auburn couldn't repeat that first half performance this week on the road, the only difference is Ole Miss doesn't have the offense to make the second half comeback and Auburn's offense won't go into a shell for an entire quarter again.

I haven't predicted a score all season so I won't start this week but I feel confident that Auburn will remain focused and do enough to roll over an over matched and over hyped Ole Miss team.