2010 Preview: The Season (Part I)

This will be part one of a three part segment previewing Auburn's opponents, how the Tiger's match up and what my predictions are for those games. The 2009 season saw Gene Chizik's first season as Head Coach get off to a hot start winning their first five games; what happened after that left a lot to be desired. A no-show in Fayetteville, an anemic offensive showing against Kentucky at home, and getting taken to the woodshed in Baton Rouge by Les Miles' worst team was the low point of the season. The team bounced back with a big win against a solid Ole Miss team but blew 14 point leads against both Georgia and Alabama in what could have been monumental wins against Auburn's biggest rivals. This year Auburn enters the season ranked 22 in the AP poll and 23 in the Coaches poll.

Arkansas State Red Wolves [Sept. 4, 2010 - Auburn, AL]

2009 Record: 4-8 (3-5)

Overview: The biggest change for the Red Wolves this off season was the hiring of offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze who is installing the Hurry-Up No-Huddle offense. He will have his work cut out for him having to break in a new starting quarterback, starting running back, and the team's top four receivers. The presumed starter at quarterback is Ryan Alpine who played well when filling in for the injured Corey Leonard at the end of the 2009 season but after missing all of spring practice due to shoulder surgery his job is far from secure and will have to fend off redshirt freshman Phillip Butterfield who showed promise in Alpine's absence. Fourth year junior Derek Lawson will get the start at running back but will share carries with fellow junior Jermaine Robertson. The leading returning receiver is junior Taylor Stockemer who finished sixth on the team with 16 receptions for 347 yards and a touchdown. The strength of the offense will be upfront where the Red Wolves return 10 lineman who started at least one game last year. The star of the bunch is right tackle Derek Newton who earned 2nd team All-Sunbelt in 2009.

The Red Wolves' defense had a stellar year in 2009 ranking 41st nationally however their best player, end Alex Carrington, was taken in the third round of the NFL draft. Defensive coordinator Kevin Corless will try to replace Carrington with a line-by-committee approach. The two players who are most solidified in their starting role are fifth year senior tackle Bryan Hall (6'1" 284), a 2nd team All-Sunbelt selection in 2009, and fourth year junior end Jeremy Gibson (6'5" 260). The strength of the defense will be with the linebackers where both starting outside linebackers return including leading tackler Demario Davis. With the addition of some players from the junior college ranks and the return of others from injury, the linebacker corp is the deepest unit on the defense. The secondary returns Kelcie McCray at safety who led the team in interceptions with four but the remainder of the spots will be filled by career backups or junior college transfers. There isn't much depth behind the starters and the players there are young and inexperienced.

Prediction: This is a perfect game for Auburn to open with. Playing against a team running the HUNH plays right into the hands of Auburn's strengths. The biggest danger when running that offense is going 3-and-out and forcing the defense back onto the field with little rest. Playing against Gus Malzahn's offense can be tiring enough without having to deal with your offense not giving you any rest either. The idea that the defense will be able to replace Alex Carrington with a bevy of players is good in theory but when Malzahn's offense doesn't allow them to substitute, how do they get their appropriate situational players into the game? Their inexperienced secondary will face the best receiving corp they will see all season in a hostile environment to kick off the season which will lead to many big plays through the air for Auburn. To defend the Red Wolves new offense Auburn will likely run a base package and force these new starters in a new offense to prove they can execute against players who are much more talented on the other side of the ball. Don't expect to see too much trickeration or too many run plays called for Cam Newton but Malzahn's offense knows only one speed and that should lead to plenty of points in week one. Look for backups to be in no later than the 4th quarter, Auburn will cruise to an easy victory.

Score: Arkansas State 10 Auburn 41

Mississippi State Bulldogs [Sept. 9, 2010 - Starkville, MS]

2009 Record: 5-7 (3-5)

Overview: Dan Mullen is now in his second season leading the Bulldogs of the West and there is little doubt that he has that program heading in the right direction. Mullen ran a two quarterback system in 2009 and used Tyson Lee to do the majority of passing and brought in Chris Relf in certain situations similar to how he used Tim Tebow during Chris Leak's senior season. With Tyson Lee graduated Mullen was looking to hand the reigns of the offense to a single quarterback but that player isn't on MSU's roster... he's on Auburn's. Cam Newton played under Mullen at Florida and strongly considered reuniting with his former position coach before settling on Auburn. That leaves junior Relf as the only returning quarterback with experience, but he's yet to solidify himself as the starter. Redshirt freshman Tyler Russell is competing with Relf for the starting nod and it is possible he takes over Tyson Lee's position in the two quarterback system while Relf remains the change of pace QB. At running back the Bulldogs will have to replace one of the school's all-time leading rushers in sixth round NFL draft pick Anthony Dixon. Dixon was the workhorse for the Bulldogs in 2009 with 257 carries for 1,391 yards and 12 touchdowns. Dixon will likely be replaced by a committee of backs including junior Robert Elliot, junior college transfer Vick Ballard, and redshirt freshman LaDarius Perkins. There is a lot of talent among the trio and each brings their own running style that Mullen can use where he best sees fit. Where this offense still has the furthest to go before being considered elite is at wide receiver. sophomore Chad Bumphis is back after a Freshman All-SEC campaign as the team's number one option. Senior Leon Berry is in his second season in Starkville after starting every game in 2009 out of junior college. Behind those two there are a few talented players but none who have proved they can get it done on Saturdays. The offensive line will be the strength of Mississippi State's offense and easily the most experienced unit. Four starters return from 2009 and the fifth spot will be filled by a player who was slated to start prior to a pre-season season ending injury. The star of the unit is senior left tackle Derek Sherrod (6'6" 305) who has drawn the eye of NFL scouts.

Mullen changed defensive coordinators in the off season bringing in Manny Diaz from Middle Tennessee State and is expecting big improvements from 2009. The defensive line is loaded with talent and size but there is a lack of experience. Tackles Josh Boyd and Fletcher Cox return after starting a combined seven games as true freshmen and they add junior college behemoth James Carmon (6'7" 345) to form a solid trio. At end senior Pernell McPhee is looking to improve with his first season out of JUCO in which he earned 2nd team All-SEC honors. The other end spot is more unsettled but sophomore Nick Bell is currently sitting atop the depth chart. The linebacker unit will have to work to replace the team's leading tackler Jamar Chaney and to do so will turn to senior veterans Chris White and K.J. Wright. White is sliding into the middle to try to fill Chaney's shoes and former safety sophomore Cameron Lawrence is moving down to linebacker to round out the starters. Depth is a concern at the linebacker position and how White steps up as a leader will be the biggest question mark for this defense. The secondary is led by junior safety Charles Mitchell and sophomore Jonathan Banks has big time potential after a freshman All-SEC season in 2009. Senior Maurice Langston and sophomore Corey Broomfield are penciled in as the starters at corner but they will likely rotate a few players through those positions.

Prediction: Starkville will be rocking ready to kick off SEC competition with a big time upset. Mullen expects his 2010 squad to go bowling and this is a game that he has circled as critical for building his team's confidence early in the season. The 2010 version of the Bulldogs will be much improved over the squad Auburn pummelled 42-24 on the Plains last year. That being said, there was a reason Mullen went hard after Cam Newton and the fact that he will be starting for Auburn in stead of MSU could be the difference. Mullen's offense still isn't ready to run stride for stride with this Auburn team and though they will come out extremely hyped up they just don't have the horses to run for four quarters. On defense State's lack of experience could lead to missed assignments and when playing against a Gus Malzahn offense that will lead to big plays. It will be critical for Auburn to take the crowd out of the game early because the longer the game is close, the louder the cowbells will get and the more MSU will believe that they can pull off the upset. Auburn won't hold anything back early on and this will be the game Cam Newton emerges onto the national scene.

Score: Auburn 34 Mississippi State 17

Clemson Tigers [Sept. 18, 2010 - Auburn, AL]

2009 Record: 9-5 (6-3)

Overview: Dabo Swinney, now in his third season as head coach at Clemson, is looking to follow up an impressive 2009 campaign which saw the Tigers in the ACC Championship game after going 6-2 in regular season conference play. The do-everything All-American and ACC Player of the Year C.J. Spiller has moved on to the NFL along with leading receiver Jacoby Ford but Clemson fans received good news in the off season when starting quarterback Kyle Parker decided to return to the football field for his sophomore season despite being drafted in the 1st round of the MLB draft by the Colorado Rockies. Parker is forgoing an $800,000 signing bonus by choosing to play football this fall and you can be sure he isn't doing that just to coast through the season before moving on with his baseball career. Parker will be drawing more attention in 2010 with the departure of Spiller and will be asked to make more plays in crunch time. Attempting to fill the shoes of Spiller will be two talented running backs, sophomore Andre Ellington and junior Jamie Harper. Both players have been waiting for their turn behind James Davis and C.J. Spiller and with the door wide open this is their opportunity to prove their worth. The situation at receiver is even more of an unknown. The leading returning receiver is senior Xavier Dye who caught 14 passes in 2009 for 236 yards and three touchdowns. There is plenty of talent to fill out the depth chart but the question is which players will get it done on Saturdays and step up as a reliable target for Parker. Tight End Michael Palmer, the second leading receiver in 2009, has also graduated but hopes are high for sophomore tight end Dwayne Allen who has more physical tools than his predecessor. For the third straight week Auburn's opponent's offensive strength is the offensive line. Four of five starters return including preseaon 1st team All-ACC selection Chris Hairston. Left guard is the lone vacancy along the line and that position battle will come down to juniors David Smith and Mason Cloy. Though this offense has a lot of production to replace between Spiller and Ford, the talent is undoubtedly there to do so and a strong offensive line, similar to Auburn's, will aid in their transition into starting roles.

Clemson's defensive strength, similar to the offense, is in the trenches. Despite the loss of Ricky Sapp, last year's team leader in sacks, the defensive line is loaded with talent, experience and depth. Three starters return including two preseason All-ACC selections, senior tackle Jarvis Jenkins and junior end Da'Quan Bowers. Junior Brandon Thompson will anchor the other tackle position and junior Andrew Branch will step up into Sapp's position opposite Bowers at end. There is plenty of talent and experience behind these starters so don't expect fatigue to be an issue for this unit as defensive line coach Dan Brooks will keep a fresh rotation on the field all game. The linebacker unit will be the biggest question mark for this defense after losing leading tackler Kavell Connor and Kevin Alexander. Junior Brandon Maye returns as a preseason All-ACC selection ready to lead a group of inexperienced underclassmen being asked to step up as starters. Defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Kevin Steele referred to his linebackers as a "work in progress," progress he's hoping they will have made by week three. The secondary is led by preseason All-American DeAndre McDaniel who led the ACC with eight interceptions. His counterpart at safety is Freshman All-American Rashard Hall who accumulated six picks and 55 tackles as a backup in 2009. Senior Marcus Gilchrist moved from safety back to corner where he played as a freshman to fill the void left by the departure of both starting corners from last year's team. Senior Byron Maxwell will start at the other corner position and has a lot of experience under his belt having played in every game in 2009 and having played on special teams and as a reserve corner in 2007 and 2008.

Prediction: This will be by far Auburn's biggest challenge of the first half of the season. The return of Kyle Parker gives Clemson an experienced leader at quarterback which will be critical coming into a hostile environment early in the season. Auburn may have 10 days to prepare for this game due to playing MSU on Thursday night the prior week but Clemson has all summer to prepare for this game with also-rans North Texas and Presbyterian in the first two weeks of their season. The biggest advantage for Auburn will be against the inexperience of Clemson's linebackers. Due to all of the misdirection and play-action, Malzahn's offense puts a lot of pressure on the linebackers and misreads lead to big plays for Auburn's offense. Clemson will try to neutralize that advantage upfront with strong defensive line play but will be doing so against one of the strongest offensive lines they will see all year. Any mistake by Cam Newton in this game will be exploited by Clemson's ball-hawking defense and winning the turnover battle will be critical in a tight match up such as this one. On the other side of the ball it will be interesting to see Clemson's approach with their skill players making their first big starts of their career. Auburn's defense struggled in 2009 and will need to make strides in 2010 to win games such as this one. In the end I expect Auburn's home field advantage to be critical in this night game to help push the SEC Tigers on to victory in a thriller.

Score: Clemson 27 Auburn 28

South Carolina Gamecocks [Sept. 25, 2010 - Auburn, AL]

2009 Record: 7-6 (3-5)

Overview: If South Carolina is going to break through the barrier in the SEC East and make their way to the SEC Championship game for the first time in their program's history, this is the year most Gamecock fans are pointing to. Juinor quarterback Stephen Garcia has received some tough love from the 'Ol Ball Coach this off season but he claims that he is more mature, focused and prepared than in prior years. Garcia has the talent to be a star in this league but has yet to put it all together and makes too many mistakes in critical situations. At running back leading rusher Kenny Miles returns for his sophomore season after accumulating just over 600 yards on 111 carries in 2009. The biggest addition to the backfield is five star All-Everything true Freshman Marcus Lattimore. The South Carolina native chose the Gamecocks after strongly considering Auburn, deciding he wanted to be the player that takes USC to the next level. If Lattimore isn't starting in week one I expect he will be by week four as all reports from camp thus far have been positive. Garcia's primary target out wide is jumbo receiver and future top NFL prospect sophomore Alshon Jeffrey (6'4" 233) who led the team with 43 receptions for 735 yards and six touchdowns as a freshman in 2009. The rest of the receiving corp is a bit of a question mark especially with preseason All-American tight end Wesley Saunders indefinitely suspended due to an ongoing NCAA investigation. For the first time this season Auburn will face an offensive line with a lot of inexperience and one which has struggled mightily in the past few years. If Garcia or Lattimore are going to make plays, they are going to need time and space to do so. Sophomore T.J. Johnson was one of the team's best linemen in 2009 at guard and will move inside to center this season. Left tackle Jarriel King comes into his senior season needing to make big strides in his pass protection in his second year at the position after playing defensive line at junior college. The other tackle spot is manned by junior Kyle Nunn who struggled at left tackle in 2009 and is hoping the switch to the right side will better suit his abilities. Senior walk-on Garret Chisolm has worked his way into a starting role at left guard and junior college transfer Rokevious Watkins will make take his first snap at the FBS level starting at right guard this season despite missing spring practice with a shoulder injury.

South Carolina's defense has been the strength of the team the past few seasons and 2010 looks to be no different. Attempting to make it three years in a row with a top 15 ranked defense the Gamecocks will have to cope with the losses of linebacker Eric Norwood, safety Darian Stewart, defensive tackle Nathan Pepper, and defensive end Clifton Geathers. Along the defensive line the star is senior defensive end Cliff Matthews who has been selected preseason All-SEC. The other returning starter on the line is senior tackle Ladi Ajiboye who, built similar to former Auburn star T.J. Jackson, is used primarily as a run stuffer at the nose. Talented junior Travian Robertson will step in to start at the three-technique after recovering from a torn ACL in 2009. Dual sport athlete Devin Taylor, who also doubles as a power forward, will step in for Geathers at end. The linebacker unit is going to struggle to replace the always disruptive Eric Norwood. Senior Rodney Paulk will step in at middle linebacker after suffering season ending injuries the past two seasons but is less than dependable having not played a full season since his Freshman year. Second year junior college transfer senior Tony Straughter got a few spot starts last year and played well on special teams and will start at weakside linebacker in USC's 4-2-5 scheme. The lone new starter in a very talented secondary is sophomore safety DeVonte Holloman who is a former four star recruit with impressive size at 6'2" 228 pounds. Sophomore Stephon Gilmore and Senior Chris Culliver form one of the better cornerback duos in the country and athletic safety Akeem Auguste is moving to safety full time for his junior season after getting time at corner his first two years in Columbia.

Prediction: In its second straight game against a team from the state of South Carolina Auburn will see which Palmeto State opponent reigns supreme in 2010. There is no doubt that Cam Newton and the Auburn receivers will have their hands full against this secondary and running the ball through the USC defensive line will prove difficult. But similar to Clemson, the Gamecocks' weakness is at linebacker which is a position that needs to be sharp when playing against Gus Malzahn's offense. This defensive line, though talented, is not as deep or experienced as Clemson's and does not have nearly as much size in the front seven. The speed of this defense may cause problems early on but I expect them to wear down as the game progresses. On offense, as strange as it is for a Steve Spurrier led team, it appears as if the struggles will continue. The loss of Saunders could prove costly as a big tight end is a quarterback's best friend, especially one as talented as Saunders. Jeffery will be a threat on the outside and will undoubtably make some plays but with more struggles on the offensive line there is no reason to expect this offense to be much better in 2010.

Score: South Carolina 13 Auburn 31

Through the first third of the season Auburn will play three very losable games against Mississippi State, Clemson and South Carolina. It could be argued that this will be the toughest four game stretch Auburn will have this year. If the Tigers can make it through this stretch undefeated than this team is in for a special season which is what I am expecting this year. One loss isn't the worst thing that could happen, espcially if it is out of conference to Clemson. Losing two games would mean we aren't quite where I thought we would be and we are going to have to fight to go bowling, which would be very disapointing. All four of these games will be televised and at least two of the four will be nationally televised in prime time which provides a great opportunity to get national recognition and move up in the polls with impressive victories.